London Playbook PM: Tory hopefuls on parade

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald living the party conference dream one last time in Birmingham.
FIRST UP: Simon Case has just told civil servants he will leave the most powerful job in Whitehall at the end of the year — confirming the worst kept secret in Westminster.
Case closed: “This morning, I informed the Prime Minister of my intention to step down as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Civil Service at the end of the year. As many of you know, I have been undergoing medical treatment for a neurological condition over the last 18 months and, whilst the spirit remains willing, the body is not. It is a shame that I feel I have to spell this out, but my decision is solely to do with my health and nothing to do with anything else.”
Fancy a go? The job ad is live here. Best of luck.
— Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch faced questions on the main stage at Tory conference. 
— Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly hawked their wares in a bunch of fringe events.
— Liz Truss drew the crowds for a typically … newsy … appearance too.
— A “limited” Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon could start as soon as today, it’s being reported tonight.
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ANOTHER DAY IN THE BEAUTY CONTEST: Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat faced the mini-gauntlet of questions on the main stage at Conservative conference — while the other likely lads of Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly jostled for attention with speeches and appearances on the fringes. Tory members are certainly getting the chance to get to know their final four.
About an hour ago … Badenoch wrapped her Q&A with Christopher Hope, in front of a full conference hall of members. They seemed sympathetic to both her and Tugendhat, who finished up just before Badenoch. She was noticeably relaxed and had a few chuckles — though did flash a look of pure Badenoch-ian fury when Hope asked her about the perception from some that she is “brittle” and irascible. 
Playing conductor: As Tugendhat did earlier — and as Jenrick and Cleverly no doubt will when they face their turn tomorrow — Badenoch played to the crowd, taking on the Tory-pleasing targets of the BBC … the Guardian … the Left … and Nigel Farage. While it wasn’t exactly electric in there, her team will be happy enough with a solid performance.
Especially since … she managed not to make any deeply controversial suggestions about maternity pay that she was later forced to clarify after hours of bad headlines. 
On that note: Badenoch implied that her comments about maternity pay were deliberately misrepresented, and that she was “interrupted as I was answering a different question.” 
Reminder: She did say that maternity pay has “gone too far.” 
Badenoch also … came out against changing the timetable of the leadership contest … said she’s never had a drink with David Cameron or Boris Johnson … argued that it isn’t right to bring back the winter fuel payment for millionaires … and said Reform “aren’t serious people.”
The biggest cheer: Tory members lapped it up when Badenoch said there will never be all-women candidate shortlists in the Conservative Party if she becomes leader. “We are the Conservative Party, we are not the Labour Party. Labour women need help — Conservative women can do it on their own.”
Yerr, I dunno about that one: In the quickfire round, Badenoch added that the saddest moment of her career was resigning from Boris Johnson’s cabinet, perhaps forgetting that these texts exist (h/t Harry Cole).
And on the big dividing line: Speaking at the Conservative Women’s fringe earlier, Badenoch said that Britain wouldn’t be “deporting anyone any faster” if it left the ECHR — as she continues to seek the middle road on the issue among contenders.
If you want to get to know the gal: Tali Fraser has a really good new profile of Badenoch for PolHome here.
TOM’S TURN: Facing Hope and the audience in the hour before Badenoch, Tugendhat went straight in with the jokes — gently ribbing Hope about whether his suit was paid for by Waheed Alli. Turning to address the audience, he apologized to members for how infighting at Westminster let them down and contributed to the election loss. 
Like with Kemi … there was little new policy light, with the relaxed setting instead lending itself well to quips (some of them quite funny) and extended opportunities to make the same points we’ve heard from these candidates many times before. But Tugendhat’s team will be pleased with the way he managed to work the crowd into a few belly laughs and extended rounds of applause.
The biggest cheer … came after Tugendhat was asked if he was a “YIMBY, NIMBY, or a banana” (nope, us neither). “Well that sounds disgusting and yellow … it must be a Lib Dem thing,” came back the reply. Nothing gets Tory members going like a (slightly) leftward swipe. 
Neither dry nor sodden: Tugendhat was arguably at his most interesting when Hope asked him if he was a “wet” — Tory code for centrist. Tugendhat argued that Hope was using the language of the Conservatives’ enemies, and that united Tories shouldn’t think in those terms.
Policy meat: The contender revealed that he feels “deeply, deeply, uncomfortable” about proposals to legislate for assisted dying, and that he would likely vote against it … Confirmed he doesn’t support all-women shortlists either … and refused to say if he would restore the winter fuel payment.
Otherwise: There was lots of touting his service record — did you know he was a soldier? — as he batted away questions about his relative lack of ministerial experience. Oh, and he reckons Boris Johnson has the biggest Bond villain vibes in the Conservative Party. 
EARLIER IN THE DAY: In a dark, theatrical venue from hell for those nursing hangovers, Robert Jenrick promised to be the man for the members and talked up his ECHR-leaving creds with a breakfast rally.
In the Jenrick dungeon: Avicii — may god rest his soul — played over the loudspeaker as activists in “We Want Bobby J” hats milled around waiting for their guy. A man urged attendees to move closer to the front and for true believers to assemble behind the stage. A single helium balloon floated around the ceiling, stuck and slowly thrashing around with nowhere to go and no one to put it out of its misery.
Bobby J then showed up … and made a few crowd-pleasing jokes at the expense of Ed Miliband, David Lammy and Angela Rayner — before coming over all Frank Lampard with a “no, but seriously” as he got into the meat of his spiel. “Despite our failings, this party remains our best hope,” he said, aiming the first half of his speech firmly at the members with promises to end shortlists of one, listen to the rank-and-file more and make conference “the crucible of conservatism.”
Brexit, part II: Jenrick then moved on to his campaign’s dividing line with the other candidates — leaving the ECHR. “It boils down to this: leave or remain,” Jenrick said. “Leave or die.” Channelling BoJo, BJ said it was essential to leave the ECHR in order to “get migration done.” He insisted too that you can’t “amend” the ECHR, in a jibe at other candidates.
Not a fan: “This is one of the most astonishing videos I have ever seen posted by a Conservative MP, let alone a candidate for the leadership,” former Attorney General Dominic Grieve tweeted in response.
OVER IN CLEVERLY WORLD: Speaking at an Onward event earlier in the day, James Cleverly said the reaction to the Covid pandemic was the worst thing of 14 years of Tory government. “We were snooping on our neighbors … it was a real indication that freedom is delicate,” the shadow home secretary said. H/T the Times’ Max Kendix.
Man with a van: A video-screen-encrusted James Cleverly van featuring beaming photo-ops with the leadership hopeful has also been spotted zipping around Birmingham … while Cleverly also had a lot of fun manning a tractor outside the NFU exhibition this morning.
Talking tax: Cleverly told a CPS event: “You should have to justify stripping people of their own money” when asked if he needs to justify tax cuts in the current economy.
If you wanna get to know the dude: The Guardian’s Eleni Courea has a strong new profile of Cleverly here.
Otherwise: Cleverly and Jenrick face the main stage Chris Hope-and-members’ gauntlet tomorrow.
CAVEAT CORNER: The candidates can grab for all the attention all they want … but Ipsos polling shared with Playbook PM shows that they’re still struggling to cut through at all with the public. The polling shows that all four of the candidates fail to break past the 20 percent favorability mark with the public — and that all have net negative favorability ratings in the teens.
Those numbers in full: Cleverly 20 percent favorable vs. 36 percent unfavorable … Badenoch 19/37 … Tugendhat 18/31 … Jenrick 18/34.
MORE POLLING FUN AND GAMES: A majority (56 percent) of young former Tory voters say they can’t see themselves voting for the Tories at the next election, according to new research from Savanta … while more Ipsos data on which Tory contender would make a good PM found that the public would pick … Nigel Farage. Write-up in the Express here.
LAND OF LIZ: The briefest of prime ministers is still drawing a crowd on Planet Tory, with Liz Truss packing out a 300-seater auditorium and dozens of disappointed activists turned away, Sam Blewett emails in. 
Blue on blue: Though Truss said she didn’t want to “indulge in a slagging match” with Theresa May, she blasted the former PM as “part of the establishment” and insisted the Tories would’ve performed better at the last election with herself at the helm rather than Rishi Sunak. She cited the surge in the Reform vote between her ousting and the election, conveniently glossing over Nigel Farage taking over as party leader. But she still reckons not ousting Boris Johnson would’ve given the Tories their “best chance” of victory. 
The leadership race afoot: Truss doesn’t “think” she’ll be backing a candidate, arguing none of them have acknowledged “how bad things are in the country as a whole and, frankly for the Conservative Party.” But she did agree with Kemi Badenoch’s all-cultures-aren’t-equal argument (“Judeo-Christian values … is what should should prevail”), liked Robert Jenrick’s hanging a Star of David at every entry point (“I’d be absolutely happy with that”) and “definitely” backed James Cleverly’s call for no one to be giving more than half of their earnings to the state. However, if Argentina’s chief chainsaw wielder Javier Milei was a candidate, Truss said she would back him “like a shot.”
Reasons to be cheerful: Truss was asked to offer something hopeful to counteract her rather gloomy assessment of the state of the world. “Donald Trump might win,” she said. “It would really cheer me up.” That one got perhaps the largest clap, giving a hint that the audience isn’t exactly representative of the Tory party at large.
Red Britain: Her most eye-catching remark, however, came right at the very start of the on-stage interview with Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley as he asked if Britain is on the road to socialism. “We are already a socialist country,” she said, arguing state spending is too high and that “huge swathes” of the economy is dogged by regulation.
The drama continues: Though she didn’t remotely sound a fan of sitting on the Commons’ green benches, Truss didn’t rule out running for parliament again as she grandly pushes on with her mission to “save the west”. “I think my family never knows what’s going to happen next. They have become used to the rollercoaster that’s living with me,” she said. That’s a ride Labour will be giving away free tickets to.
TORY BUSINESS SCHMOOZING: The Conservative Business Day was meanwhile in full flow, with grateful corporate bigwigs charged several thousand to hear about how the party still loves them after a difficult few years.
Uh oh: Fewer than 100 of those bigwigs made it along to the 7:45 a.m. kickoff — probably for the best, given one attendee told my London Influence colleague John Johnston the coffee was like “brown water” and the worst they’ve ever had at conference — although the sausage sarnies were a hit.
No biz Bobby: A chunk of the morning was set aside for speeches from the leadership candidates … but Robert Jenrick was a no-show. Attendees were told he’d instead grace them with his presence at tonight’s networking drinks. Jenrick’s team insisted he never RSVP’d for the event or promised his attendance. He was addressing members at his breakfast rally.
Don’t blame us: One glum attendee told John: “They all focussed on how they’d lead as PM, not as leader of the opposition. So generally … upbeat, but not really realistic.” A public affairs pro said they’d opted to skip the morning entirely, hoping the afternoon policy sessions might offer some insight … although they weren’t holding out much hope.
TAKING POTSHOTS AT THE OLD GUY: Ex-MP Tory MP — and Badenoch backer — Rachel Maclean told a private meeting of Badenoch supporters that Rishi Sunak’s approach to the manifesto process was “absolutely shocking,” Adam Payne from PoliticsHome reports.
THIS GUY’S PRACTICALLY GOVING AWAY THESE INSIGHTS: Incoming Spectator editor Michael Gove told an Onward fringe that Conservatives need to “fall in love with the future” as the Victorians did — and that the ultimate expression of that is having more children.
NOT ANOTHER LEADERSHIP CONTEST, PLS: Former Tory MP and Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb got the Tory unity message off to a good start when he questioned whether Welsh Conservatives Leader Andrew RT Davies should lead the party into the next Senedd election in 2026. He was speaking to BBC Radio Wales.
THAT WASN’T VERY ‘SERVE, LEAD, ACT’ OF YOU: Pasty conference goers looking for a bottle of Tom Tugendh-tan this morning were left disappointed — as the “couple of hundred” bottles his team ordered in had already been cleaned out, with no plans currently in place for any more on the way. Pray for Playbook PM’s disappearing summer tan.
Spotted: Tory big beast Andrew Mitchell trying to flog his own memoir as the “funniest book you’ll ever read” to activists milling around the Waterstones stand.
Also spotted in the exhibition hall: A “pitch-perfect” — according to one witness — impression of Trump’s “they’re eating the dogs” speech from a young Conservative activist.
And the best-dressed award goes to … Jacob Rees-Mogg for wearing his conference pass on a chain like a pocket watch (h/t Jessica Elgot).
NOT CONFERENCE BUT: House prices rose by the fastest rate for nearly two years in September, Nationwide data shows. More from the BBC here.
THE FEAR, VANQUISHED: Fair play to this dude for bringing Quality Street in for the ICC cleaning team to apologize for throwing up on the carpet at conference two years back.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel has notified the United States it intends to launch a “limited ground incursion” into Lebanon, CBS News is reporting, citing a U.S. official. It could start as soon as today. Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem said his organization is “ready” for any ground invasion and will emerge “victorious.”
Tense moment: Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the people of Iran directly in a three-minute X video. An Iranian government spokesperson said Iran will not send troops to Gaza or Lebanon as fighters “have the capacity to defend themselves.” The BBC live blog has the very latest.
IN HONG KONG: British judge Nicholas Phillips stepped down from Hong Kong’s top appeals court after 22 years for “personal reasons,” making him the fifth overseas judge to leave the court’s judiciary this year. Overall, 10 overseas judges have stepped down since the introduction of the 2020 national security law which criminalized acts of dissent and subversion — the Guardian has more.
IN RUSSIA: The late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny displayed symptoms consistent with poisoning shortly before he died in prison, according to leaked official documents. The Times has a writeup.
IN FRANCE: The National Rally’s Marine Le Pen plans to sue a purported neo-Nazi rock group Match Retour  after its members appeared on video with her 96-year-old father Jean-Marie Le Pen at his home. In a statement seen by POLITICO’s Sarah Paillou and Joshua Berlinger, the party said it would file a formal complaint against the members for taking advantage of her father’s diminishing health.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: BBC News at Six focuses on escalation in the Middle East … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) which also has an interview with Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): University of Cambridge academic David Reiner (5.05 p.m.) … Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Peter Lerner (5.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Wales Minister Nia Griffith … Tory leadership contender James Cleverly … Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell … Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Laura Trott … Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen … Tory MP Aphra Brandreth … former Tory MPs Damian Green and Jake Berry … Peter Lerner.
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Tory leadership contenders Kemi Badenoch and James Cleverly … former Leveling-Up Secretary and incoming Spectator editor Michael Gove.
Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Former Royal United Services Institute Director General Michael Clarke.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Former Science Secretary Michelle Donelan … former Labour adviser James Schneider.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Andrew Mitchell … former U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman.
GBN Tonight (GB News, 7 p.m.): Tory MP Mark Francois … Reform UK MP Lee Anderson.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Former Defense Secretary Grant Shapps … former Downing Street Director of Communications Guto Harri … former government adviser Mercy Muroki … former Tory MP Miriam Cates.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MP Anne-Marie Trevelyan … J.L. Partners Director Scarlett Maguire … former Tory adviser Tom Skinner.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi … Reform UK Deputy Leader Richard Tice.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Jake Berry.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Shadow Business Secretary Kevin Hollinrake … Tory MP Harriet Cross.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Former civil servant Caroline Slocock and ConHome’s Harry Phibbs … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The i’s Ian Dunt and broadcaster Esther Krakue.

BEST SHOW IN TOWN: Drinks will be served from 6 p.m. at POLITICO’s Happy Hour reception, presented by Intuit. Invites required.
Elsewhere: Invites probably needed. Conservative Friends of Overseas Territories reception with Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell (6 p.m.) … the i newspaper hosts its reception (6 p.m.) … Shadow Science Secretary Andrew Griffith joins the Spectator drinks reception (6 p.m.) … Holocaust Educational Trust reception is joined by holocaust survivor Mala Tribich, 1922 committee Chair Bob Blackman and Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Oliver Dowden (6 p.m.) … the ConHome reception hosts leadership candidate Kemi Badenoch (7 p.m.) … ConHome hosts a youth reception with an appearance from former MP Penny Mordaunt (7 p.m.) … Shadow Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho is attending the Energy Trade Association reception (7.30 p.m.).
Deep breath: Onward has its reception with Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen (8 p.m.) … the Conservative Environment Network hosts it quiz of the year with Shadow Womens and Equalities Minister Mims Davies (8 p.m.) … the PopCons host a private drinks reception with former MP Jacob Rees Mogg and Tory peer David Frost (8 p.m.) … the CBI reception hosts Shadow Business Secretary Kevin Hollinrake (8.30 p.m.).
Okay we’re gasping for air by this point: EU reception hosted by Ambassador Pedro Serrano, joined by Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell (8.30 p.m.) … the Centre for Social Justice hosts a husting event with all leadership candidates, booze provided (8.30 p.m.) … The BPI and ConservativeHome Silent Disco with playlists by the four leadership candidates (9 p.m.) … Sky Party (10 p.m.).
TORY CONFERENCE: Jenrick and Cleverly face the main stage member Q&A gauntlet. The usual round-up of fringe and party action will be in morning Playbook.
WILL SOMEONE GIVE THIS GUY A NEW GIG? Former Tory MP Jonathan Gullis — of anti ‘woke-warrior teachers’ fame — told Times Radio he’s struggling to return to the teaching profession, having applied for some jobs. He reckons it’s due to his political views. Get the violins out.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Neville Chamberlain hailed “peace for our time” on this day in 1938 after a signing a non-aggression pact with Germany.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
IN MEMORIAM: The POA trade union announced that its Deputy General Secretary Joe Simpson died Sept. 27 “after a brave fight against cancer.” The union added: “Joe was an immense man, trade unionist and a friend. He will be sadly missed.”
THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporters Noah Keate and Mason Boycott-Owen, plus the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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